The race is heating up in Calgary as former mayor Naheed Nenshi and Alberta separatist leader Paul Hinman officially enter two provincial byelection contests. This marks a significant turning point in Alberta politics, with prominent figures staking their claims in what promises to be a closely-watched electoral showdown.
Yesterday afternoon, Premier Danielle Smith called byelections in Calgary-Elbow and Calgary-Lougheed for November 22nd. The announcement came as little surprise to those of us following Alberta politics, though the timing gives candidates just three weeks to make their case to voters.
I caught up with local political analyst Sandra Martinez at Rosso Coffee on 17th Avenue this morning. “These byelections are more than just filling vacant seats,” Martinez told me. “They’re a temperature check on Smith’s UCP government midway through their mandate. The Premier needs wins here to maintain momentum.”
The Calgary-Elbow contest has quickly become the one to watch. Former three-term Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi officially launched his campaign for the Alberta NDP in this riding. Having covered Nenshi’s tenure as mayor, I can attest to his remarkable ability to connect with voters across political lines.
“Calgary deserves better than what we’ve been getting from this UCP government,” Nenshi told supporters at his campaign launch. “This is about bringing a strong voice for Calgary to the legislature.”
His entry transforms what might have been a routine byelection into a high-stakes political battle. The UCP has nominated lawyer Manjot Parmar, who faces the daunting task of challenging one of Calgary’s most recognizable political figures.
Over in Calgary-Lougheed, the contest has taken an unexpected turn with Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman entering the race. This riding, previously held by former Premier Jason Kenney, has historically been a conservative stronghold.
“Alberta needs to stand up to Ottawa,” Hinman declared yesterday at his campaign office. “We can’t keep sending the same people to Edmonton and expecting different results.”
The UCP has nominated Jonathan Hagel for this seat, while the NDP is fielding Tej Heer. According to Elections Alberta data, the UCP won this riding by a comfortable margin in 2023, capturing 52% of the vote compared to the NDP’s 41%.
Speaking with voters outside the Southcentre Mall this morning, I found mixed reactions to the candidates. “I’m excited to see Nenshi back in politics,” said Elbow resident Maria Thomson. “He knows how to get things done.”
Meanwhile, Calgary-Lougheed resident James Wilson expressed skepticism: “I’m not sure any of these candidates understand what families like mine are going through with inflation and housing costs.”
These byelections come at a pivotal moment for Alberta politics. The province’s unemployment rate sits at 6.2%, according to Statistics Canada‘s latest report, above the national average. Oil prices have stabilized around $75 per barrel, providing some economic stability, but diversification remains a challenge.
Political scientist Dr. Rebecca Taylor at Mount Royal University suggests these contests carry significant implications. “For the NDP, winning even one of these seats would signal they remain competitive in Calgary, which is crucial for their provincial strategy,” she explained during our phone conversation yesterday.
“For the UCP, defending these seats is about demonstrating their policies are resonating with urban voters,” Taylor added.
The compressed three-week campaign will test each party’s organizational strength. Early voting will be available from November 12-16, with election day set for November 22.
As someone who’s covered numerous Calgary elections, I can tell you that voter turnout typically hovers around 40% for byelections. However, with high-profile candidates like Nenshi in the mix, we might see higher participation this time around.
What’s clear is that Calgary voters have meaningful choices ahead. These byelections aren’t just about filling vacant seats—they’re about the direction Alberta will take as we approach the midpoint of this government’s term.
I’ll be bringing you regular updates as these campaigns unfold in the coming weeks. The results might just reshape Alberta’s political landscape heading into 2025.
