A chill has descended over Toronto that has nothing to do with the approaching winter. According to a new poll released yesterday, 84% of residents across the Greater Toronto Area report feeling direct financial impacts from the latest round of Trump-era tariffs. The findings reveal a city grappling with economic uncertainty that touches nearly every household.
“These aren’t just abstract economic policies anymore,” says Maria Gonzalez, chief economist at the Toronto Economic Forum. “We’re seeing these tariffs translate directly into higher prices at checkout counters across the city.”
The comprehensive survey, conducted by Toronto Metropolitan Research Group, gathered responses from over 3,200 GTA residents during the first two weeks of October. Beyond the headline 84% figure, the data paints a nuanced picture of how these international trade tensions are playing out in our local economy.
Nearly 62% of respondents reported noticeable increases in grocery bills, while 58% have delayed major purchases like appliances and electronics. Perhaps most concerning, 41% of Toronto small business owners surveyed indicated they’ve already reduced staff hours or postponed planned expansions.
Walking through Kensington Market yesterday afternoon, I couldn’t help but notice how these statistics are manifesting in real life. Vera Li, who has owned a specialty food shop there for eleven years, shared her perspective while restocking imported olive oils.
“I’ve had to raise prices on about a third of my inventory,” Li explained, gesturing toward shelves of imported specialty products. “My customers understand it’s not my choice, but I’m still seeing them buy less each visit.”
The impact extends far beyond retail. Toronto’s manufacturing sector, which employs roughly 124,000 workers according to Statistics Canada‘s latest data, faces particular challenges. The poll indicates 76% of manufacturing businesses report supply chain disruptions directly attributed to the tariff situation.
“We’re caught in a difficult position,” admits Carlos Rodriguez, operations manager at Etobicoke-based Precision Components. “The steel tariffs mean we’re paying 23% more for raw materials than last year, but our customers resist price increases. Something has to give.”
City officials have taken notice. A spokesperson from the mayor’s office confirmed they’re developing a local business resilience plan expected to be announced next week. The initiative reportedly includes tax relief measures and expanded access to business development resources.
The poll also revealed interesting geographical patterns across the GTA. Mississauga and Brampton residents reported the highest impact rates at 89% and 87% respectively, likely reflecting those communities’ deeper connections to manufacturing and logistics sectors.
Professor Anita Singh from York University‘s Department of Economics suggests these findings reflect broader economic vulnerabilities. “Toronto has benefited tremendously from global trade integration,” Singh explained during our phone conversation. “But that same interconnectedness means we feel these disruptions more acutely than more isolated economic regions.”
For everyday Torontonians, the effects manifest in countless small decisions. The survey found 68% have cut back on dining out, while 52% report reducing discretionary spending on entertainment and non-essential shopping.
“I’m definitely more conscious about spending now,” admitted Jayden Williams, a 29-year-old tech worker I spoke with outside Union Station. “My rent hasn’t changed, but everything else seems more expensive. I’ve started bringing lunch from home most days instead of grabbing something downtown.”
The Ontario Chamber of Commerce estimates these tariffs could ultimately reduce provincial economic growth by 0.7% over the next year if current conditions persist. For a city like Toronto with roughly half the province’s economic activity, that translates to significant concerns about job creation and business investment.
Not everyone sees doom and gloom, however. The poll found 23% of respondents believe these trade tensions create opportunities for Canadian businesses to develop more resilient local supply chains. Another 18% expressed confidence that diplomatic solutions will emerge within six months.
“Toronto has weathered economic challenges before,” reminded David Chen, director of the Toronto Small Business Association. “Our diversity isn’t just cultural – it extends to our economic base. We’re not overly dependent on any single industry or market.”
As I finished gathering perspectives for this story, I stopped by a hardware store on Queen Street West where the owner, Maryam Hassan, offered perhaps the most quintessentially Toronto response to the situation.
“Sure, some items cost more now, and customers notice,” she said with a slight shrug. “But we adapt. We help people find alternatives or explain the situation. In Toronto, we figure it out together.”
While the data clearly shows widespread economic impact, Hassan’s practical resilience echoes what makes this city remarkable. As Toronto navigates these uncertain economic waters, that community spirit may prove our most valuable resource.
